835 kinh tế gia Hoa Kỳ khuyến cáo cử tri không nên bầu cho Trump ngày 3 tháng 11 năm 2020

Chúng tôi là những kinh tế gia ký tên dưới đây mạnh mẽ kêu gọi cử tri không tái cử Donald Trump vì những lý do sau đây:

* Cách thức thương lượng hỗn loạn và vô hiệu quả của ông đã gây tổn thương đến quan hệ đối với những đối tác thương mại, làm gián đoạn đường giây tiếp liệu (supply chain), hạ thấp những tiêu chuẩn quốc tế, và làm hại nông gia – Vậy mà không đạt được mục tiêu mà ông đã công bố là làm giảm nhập siêu. Ngay cả thỏa hiệp thương mại dấu ấn US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) cũng được dự đoán sẽ không tạo được một ảnh hưởng có ý nghĩa nào về tổng sản phẩm nội địa (GDP) hay nhập siêu.

* Khả năng quản trị kém cỏi của ông đã gây thiệt hại cho sự khả tín và hiệu quả của khu vực công. Những cơ quan chính phủ điều hành bởi những viên chức xử lý, những cựu nhân viên bất bình, thường xuyên xuất hiện trên báo chí với những sự cảnh báo khốc liệt, và người trong gia đình được giao cho trọng trách đối phó với đại dịch.

* Ông tự cho là người duy nhất có khả năng làm kinh tế có thể tăng trưởng (theo GDP giá cố định) trong khoảng 4% và 6%, nhưng chưa bao giờ vượt quá 2.9% trong ba năm đầu của ông. Ngoài ra, Goldman Sachs và Moody’s Analytics đã dự đoán rằng kế hoạch kinh tế của Joe Biden nếu được thực hiện, có thể sẽ làm cho mức tăng trưởng nhanh hơn về cả việc làm lẫn GDP.

* Ông đã thất bại trong việc thực hiện những hứa hẹn kinh tế cốt lõi khi tranh cử: khu vực công nghệ tiếp tục giữ một phần nhỏ về việc làm, và mức thiếu hụt về ngân sách và thương mại đã gia tăng. Như những kinh tế gia đã giải thích vào 2016, hầu hết những hứa hẹn của ông hoặc không có ý nghĩa hoặc là không thể đạt được với những chính sách của ông. Điều này cũng đúng cho 2020.

* Cách đối phó với COVID-19 của chính quyền qua chính sách y tế công cộng, như được mô tả bởi những y học gia , đã biến “cuộc khủng hoảng thành một thảm họa” và đã thua những quốc gia dân chủ khác theo “mức độ nghiêm trọng.”

* Ông liên tục làm giảm tính cách độc lập và mức khả tín của các cơ quan y tế chủ yếu, bao gồm Food and Drug Administration, Center for Disease Control, và National Institute of Health, làm giảm lòng tin của công chúng đối với các cơ quan này ở những lúc mà chúng ta cần nhất.

* Ông nhấn mạnh quá sức đến mâu thuẫn giữa phát triển kinh tế và y tế công cộng trong cơn đại dịch. Sự thật, nhiều quốc gia ngăn chặn virus một cách hiệu quả đã thành công hơn về phương diện kinh tế.

* Hành vi cá nhân của ông khi đại dịch COVID-19 bộc phát đã gây nguy hại cho y tế công cộng, việc phục hồi kinh tế và việc mở cửa các trường học một cách an toàn. Ông xem thường việc dùng khẩu trang và giữ khoảng cách xã hội, tổ chức những cuộc tập họp trong nhà, khuyến khích việc sử dụng những chất chưa được kiểm chứng và có tiềm năng nguy hiểm, xem thường tính chất nghiêm trọng của đại dịch, tổ chức những sinh hoạt lớn làm lan truyền virus, làm tê liệt Tòa Bạch Ốc và buộc giới lãnh đạo quân sự phải cách ly.

* Ông thường xuyên tung ra những tin không chính xác, ngay cả trong thời gian khủng hoảng, và là nguồn tin giả mạo lớn nhất trong thời gian đại dịch.

* Ông đã làm cho đất nước khó thu hút được những di dân có khả năng chuyên môn và làm việc tận tụy vì đã xâm phạm tự do tôn giáo và ám chỉ rằng những đứa trẻ của những di dân da mầu không thật sự là người Mỹ.

* Ông đã làm cho đất nước trở thành một nơi kém hấp dẫn để kinh doanh vì đã tạo ra một không khí hỗn loạn và bất ổn và sử dụng chính quyền để trừng phạt cá nhân hay cơ sở kinh doanh nào không tỏ vẻ tôn kính.

* Ông đã nuôi dưỡng một nền văn hóa tham nhũng trắng trợn bằng cách áp lực những nước ngoại quốc gây thiệt hại cho những đối thủ chính trị của ông, sử dụng vị thế của mình để quảng cáo đậu cho một người ủng hộ chính trị, toan tình chuyển những buổi họp giữa những cơ quan chính phủ về những cơ sở thương mại của ông, sử dụng tài nguyên quốc gia để tổ chức những sinh hoạt tranh cử, và cho phép nhân viên Tòa Bạch Ốc công khai vi phạm Đạo Luật Hatch Act (cấm các nhân viên trong chính phủ liên bang, ngoại trừ tổng thống và phó tổng thống, được tham gia một số hoạt động chính tri.)

* Ông từ chối công khai hóa hồ sơ thuế cá nhân – không như những đối thủ chính trị của ông trong những năm 2016 và 2020 – gây khó khăn cho việc ấn định mâu thuẫn giữa quyền lợi tài chánh cá nhân và quốc gia ở mức độ nào. Một bài tường thuật (New York Times) mới đây cho biết đã có được hồ sơ thuế của ông trong hai thập niên. Theo đó, những cơ sở kinh doanh của ông đã liên tục khai lỗ lớn lao và ông xem ra có nhiều mâu thuẫn về quyền lợi chưa giải quyết.

* Ông đã tung ra nhiều thuyết âm mưu làm tổn hại đến niềm tin vào những cơ chế dân chủ mà không đưa ra một lý do nào ngoại trừ để tạo ảnh hưởng với báo chí trong một chu kỳ tin tức.

* Ông có một quan điểm kinh tế thiếu hiểu biết, thắng thua bù trừ lẫn nhau (zero-sum), do đó gây ra sai sót và sự độc ác.

Chỉ trong một nhiệm kỳ, Donald Trump đã làm cho Hoa Kỳ không còn nhận ra được, và không phải chịu một hậu quả nào vì làm như vậy. Ông ta đã tấn công vào những cơ chế dân chủ, giao phó cho những người trong gia đình những trách nhiệm chính quyền quan trọng trong thời kỳ đại dịch, đòi hỏi những đối thủ chính trị bị nhốt vào tù, bình thường hóa tham nhũng, và làm việc phục hồi kinh tế yếu đi vì hành vi ích kỷ và bất cẩn. Vì những lý do này, chúng tôi mạnh mẽ khuyến cáo rằng những cử tri hãy làm những gì mà không ai khác có thể làm: tái lập nền dân chủ bằng cách bỏ phiếu truất phế Donald Trump ra khỏi chức vụ tổng thống.

We, the undersigned economists, strongly urge voters not to re-elect Donald Trump on the following grounds:

• His chaotic and ineffective approach to negotiation has damaged relations with trade partners, interrupted supply chains, degraded international norms, and harmed American farmers -- all without achieving his stated goal of reducing the trade deficit. Even his landmark trade deal, the USMCA, is not projected to have a meaningful impact on either GDP or the trade deficit.

• His managerial incompetence has damaged the credibility and effectiveness of the public sector. Agencies cycle through acting heads, disgruntled former staffers frequently appear in the media with dire warnings, and family members are put in charge of critical pandemic response initiatives.

• He claimed to have the unique ability to generate growth (in real GDP) of between 4% and 6%, but never surpassed 2.9% in his first three years in office. Furthermore, analysts at Goldman Sachs and Moody’s Analytics have projected that Joe Biden’s economic plans, if implemented, would actually generate faster growth in both employment and real GDP.

• He failed to achieve his campaign’s core economic promises: manufacturing remained a small share of employment, and both the fiscal and trade deficits increased. As economists explained in 2016, most of his promises either didn’t make sense or weren’t achievable using his proposed policies. This remains true in 2020.

• His administration’s public health response to COVID-19 was described by medical scientists as having turned "...a crisis into a tragedy" and as having underperformed relative to other democracies by "orders of magnitude."

• He has consistently undermined the independence and credibility of our major health agencies, including the Food and Drug Administration, the Centers for Disease Control, and the National Institutes of Health, eroding public trust in their approvals and recommendations at exactly the time when we most desperately need it.

• He has dramatically overemphasized the extent to which economic growth and public health are in conflict during a pandemic. In fact, many countries that have been more effective in their viral containment efforts have also performed better economically.

• His personal behavior during the COVID-19 outbreak endangered public health, the economic recovery, and the safe re-opening of schools. He undermined mask use and social distancing, held indoor rallies, encouraged the use of unproven and potentially dangerous medical substances, downplayed the severity of the pandemic, and hosted a superspreader event that incapacitated the White House and forced military leadership into quarantine.

• He regularly spreads dangerous misinformation, even during times of crisis, and has been the single largest source of misinformation during the pandemic.

• He has made the country less attractive to skilled and hard-working immigrants by assaulting religious freedom and by insinuating that the children of non-white immigrants are not truly American.

• He has made the country a less appealing place to do business by creating an atmosphere of perpetual chaos and uncertainty, and by using the levers of government to punish individuals and businesses that were insufficiently reverential.

• He has fostered a culture of unabashed corruption by pressuring foreign countries to undermine his political opponents, using the resolute desk to promote a political supporter’s bean products, attempting to divert intergovernmental meetings to his commercial properties, using public resources to conduct campaign events, and allowing White House staff to openly flout the Hatch Act.

• He has refused to release his tax returns -- unlike his political opponents in both 2016 and 2020 -- making it difficult to determine the extent to which his financial interests conflict with the country’s. Recent reporting, which has secured his returns for two decades, suggests that his businesses have consistently claimed large losses and that he appears to have many unresolved conflicts of interest.

• He spreads conspiracy theories that undermine long-term trust in democratic institutions for seemingly no reason other than to influence media coverage in a single news cycle.

• He has a poorly-informed, zero-sum view of economics that engenders needless viciousness and cruelty.

In just one term in office, Donald Trump has rendered the United States unrecognizable, and has faced no consequences for doing so. He has carried out a sustained assault on democratic institutions, put his family members in charge of critical government functions during a pandemic, called for his political opponents to be thrown in prison, normalized corruption, and weakened the economic recovery with selfish and reckless behavior. For these reasons, we strongly recommend that the electorate do what no one else can: reclaim your democracy by voting to remove Donald Trump from office.

Henry J Aaron, The Brookings Institution Alberto Abadie, MIT Soofi Abdol, School of Business, University of Wisconsin-Platteville Teshome Abebe, Eastern Illinois University Ryan Abman, San Diego State University Rahi Abouk, William Paterson University Joelle Abramowitz, University of Michigan David Abrams, University of Pennsylvania Jason Abrevaya, University of Texas, Austin Daron Acemoglu, MIT Sara Adler-Mandelbaum, Western Governor's University Anat R Admati, Stanford University Amanda Agan, Rutgers University Dennis J. Aigner, University of California, Irvine Ugur Aker, Hiram College George Akerlof, Georgetown University Stefania Albanesi, University of Pittsburgh Randy Albelda, University of Massachusetts Boston Jim Albrecht, Georgetown University Harold Alderman, IFPRI Treb Allen, Dartmouth College Andres Almazan, The University of Texas at Austin Douglas Almond, Columbia University Titan Alon, University of California, San Diego Neil Alper, Northeastern University Rosanne Altshuler, Rutgers University Nurul Samiul Aman, University of Massachusetts Boston Pedro Amaral, California State University, Fullerton Kathryn H. Anderson, Vanderbilt University Robert M Anderson, University of California, Berkeley Axel Anderson, Georgetown University James E. Anderson, Boston College Victor William Ribeiro Andrade, University of Kansas Donald W K Andrews, Yale University Manuela Angelucci, The University of Texas at Austin Jasmin Ansar, Mills College Ian Appel, Boston College Andres Aradillas-Lopez, Pennsylvania State University Eren Arbatli, NRU Higher School of Economics Ken Ardon, Salem State University Matteo Arena, Marquette University Mary Arends-Kuenning, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign Costas Arkolakis, Yale University Boragan Aruoba, University of Maryland Michael Ash, University of Massachusetts Amherst Richard Ashley, Virginia Tech Vidya Atal, Montclair State University Susan Averett, Lafayette College Ruediger Bachmann, University of Notre Dame M. V. Lee Badgett, Amherst, MA Erol Balkan, Hamilton College Laurence Ball, Johns Hopkins University Suman Banerjee, Stevens Institute of Technology Victoria Baranov, The University of Melbourne Robert J. Barbera, Johns Hopkins University Bradford Lewis Barham, University of Wisconsin - Madison Bill Barnes, University of Portland William A. Barnett, University of Kansas Christopher B. Barrett, Cornell University Dominick Bartelme, University of Michigan Karna Basu, Hunter College & CUNY Graduate Center Bharati Basu, Central Michigan University Michael Bates, University of California at Riverside Natalie Bau, UCLA Reagan Baughman, University of New Hampshire Robert Baumann, College of the Holy Cross Neal Becker, University of Pittsburgh Jere R Behrman, University of Pennsylvania Marc F. Bellemare, University of Minnesota C. Lanier Benkard, Stanford University Alan M. Benson, University of Minnesota Antonio M Bento, University of Southern California Youssef Benzarti, University of California, Santa Barbara Julia Berazneva, Middlebury College Berenbeim, Stern School of Business Administration, New York University Dirk Bergemann, Yale University Peter Bergman, Columbia University Ted Bergstrom, University of California Santa Barbara Eli Berman, University of California San Diego Kevin Berry, University of Alaska Anchorage Marianne Bertrand, University of Chicago David Besanko, Northwestern University Michael Carlos Best, Columbia University Syon Bhanot, Swarthmore College Saurabh Bhargava, Carnegie Mellon University V Bhaskar, University of Texas at Austin Joydeep Bhattacharya, Iowa State University Timothy Bianco, Allegheny College Joerg Bibow, Skidmore College Adam I. Biener, Lafayette College Herman J. Bierens, Pennsylvania State University Saki Bigio, UCLA Richard E. Bilsborrow, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Emily Blanchard, Tuck School of Business, Dartmouth College David Blanchflower, Dartmouth College Emily Blank, Howard University Francine D. Blau, Cornell University Robert A. Blecker, American University Jason R. Blevins, Ohio State University Jesse Blocher, Vanderbilt University Steven Block, Tufts University Barry Bluestone, Northeastern University Randy Bluffstone, Portland State University Andreas Blume, University of Arizona Luigi Bocola, Stanford University Martin Boileau, University of Colorado Gary Bolton, University of Texas at Dallas Alessandro Bonatti, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Philip Bond, Carl Bonham, University of Hawaii at Manoa Severin Borenstein, University of California, Berkeley Luca Bossi, University of Pennsylvania Steven Bosworth, University of Reading Matthew J. Botsch, Bowdoin College Nathan Sivers Boyce, Willamette University Gale A. Boyd, Duke University Roy G Boyd, Ohio University W. David Bradford, University of Georgia Sebastien Bradley, Drexel University William Brainard, Yale University Elizabeth Brainerd, Brandeis University Daniel Brent, Penn State University Wyatt Brooks, Arizona State University David S. Brookshire, University of New Mexico Clair Brown, University of California, Berkeley Christina Brown, UC Berkeley Derek S. Brown, Washington University in St. Louis Sandro Brusco, Stony Brook University Kevin Bryan, University of Toronto Kasey Buckles, University of Notre Dame Marguerite Burns, University of Wisconsin Benjamin Bushong, Michigan State University Kristy Buzard, Syracuse University Tilman Bögers, University of Michigan Trudy Ann Cameron, University of Oregon Donald Edward Campbell, The College of William and Mary Gerard Caprio, Williams College Geoffrey Carliner, Boston University Christopher Carpenter, Vanderbilt University Michael Carter, UMass Lowell Michael R Carter, University of California, Davis John Cawley, Cornell University Stephen Cecchetti, Brandeis University Ujjayant Chakravorty, Tufts University Frank Chaloupka, University of Illinois at Chicago Roberto Chang, Rutgers University David A. Chapman, University of Virginia Kalyan Chatterjee, The Pennsylvania State University Joyce J. Chen, The Ohio State University Howard Chernick, Hunter College and the Graduate Center, City Univ of NY Ron Cheung, Oberlin College Judith Chevalier, Yale School of Management Rachel G. Childers, Presbyterian College Robert Chirinko, University of Illinois at Chicago Barry R. Chiswick, George Washington University Bhagwan Chowdhry, UCLA Abdur Chowdhury, Marquette University Kimberly E Christensen, Sarah Lawrence College Tim Classen, Loyola University Chicago Kimberly Clausing, Reed College Jim Cobbe, Florida State University Daniele Coen-Pirani, University of Pittsburgh Sarah Cohodes, Teachers College, Columbia University Matthew T. Cole, California Polytechnic State University Robert Collinson, University of Notre Dame Jonathan Colmer, University of Virginia Jonathan Conning, City University of New York Karen Conway, University of New Hampshire Patrick Conway, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Jason Cook, University of Utah Thomas Cooley, New York University Hope Corman, Rider University Arnold R. Cowan, Iowa State University Donald Cox, Boston College Stuart V. Craig, University of Pennsylvania Peter Cramton, University of Maryland Carolyn Craven, Middlebury College Vincent Crawford, University of Oxford and University of California, San Diego Elizabeth Crowell, University of Michigan—Dearborn Kelley L. Cullen, Eastern Washington University J David Cummins, Temple University Scott Cunningham, Baylor University David M Cutler, Harvard University Jamshid Damooei, California Lutheran University James Dana, Northeastern University Shooshan Danagoulian, Wayne State University Betty C Daniel, University at Albany Andrew Daughety, Vanderbilt University Dhaval Dave, Bentley University Thomas Davidoff, University of British Columbia Donald R. Davis, Columbia University Robert T. Deacon, University of California, Santa Barbara Joyee Deb, Yale University Tatyana Deryugina, University of Illinois Olivier Deschenes, University of California, Santa Barbara Jerome Detemple, Boston University James DeVault, Lafayette College Peter Diamond, MIT Ranjit S. Dighe, SUNY Oswego Michael DiNardi, University of Rhode Island Taryn Dinkelman, University of Notre Dame Rebecca Dizon-Ross, University of Chicago Matthias Doepke, Northwestern University Kevin Donovan, Yale University Coleman Drake, University of Pittsburgh Itamar Drechsler, Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania Thomas Drennen, Hobart and William Smith Colleges Scott Dressler, Villanova University Steven J. Dundas, Oregon State University Steven N. Durlauf, University of Chicago Prajit Dutta, Columbia University Susan Dynarski, University of Michigan Richard A. Easterlin, University of Southern California Jonathan Eaton, Pennsylvania State University Richard Eckaus, MIT Eric Edmonds, Dartmouth College Kevin Egan, University of Toledo Nina Eichacker, University of Rhode Island Barry Eichengreen, University of California, Berkeley Robert Elder, Beloit College Sara Fisher Ellison, MIT Alice Ellyson, University of Washington, Seattle Children's Research Institute Adem Y. Elveren, Fitchburg State University Can Erbil, Boston College Christopher Erickson, University of California, Los Angeles Keith Marzilli Ericson, Boston University Bilge Erten, Northeastern University Hadi Salehi Esfahani, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign Jose-Antonip Espin-Sanchez, Yale University Mary Evans, Claremont McKenna College David Evans, University of Oregon Piotr Evdokimov, Higher School of Economics Ray Fair, Yale University David Fairris, University of California, Riverside Steven Fazzari, Washington University in St. Louis Edgar Feige, University of Wisconsin - Madison Raquel Fernandez, NYU A. Nilesh Fernando, University of Notre Dame Ricardo Fernholz, Claremont McKenna College James Feyrer, Dartmouth College Alexander J. Field, Santa Clara University Andrew Fieldhouse, Middlebury College Deborah M. 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Green, Harvard University Stuart Greenbaum, Washington University, STL Matthew Greenblatt, The College of New Jersey Daniel Greenwald, MIT Mark Greer, The College of William & Mary Amanda Gregg, Middlebury College Matthew Grennan, University of Pennsylvania Erica L Groshen, Cornell University Michael Grossman, City University of New York Graduate Center Wayne A. Grove, Le Moyne College Theodore Groves, University of California - San Diego Martin J Gruber, NYU Jonathan Gruber, MIT Danilo Guaitoli, NYU Arthur S Guarino, Rutgers University Joanne Guo, University of Bridgeport Adam Guren, Boston University Fatih Guvenen, University of Minnesota Charles J. Hadlock, Michigan State University Nima Haghpanah, Pennsylvania State University Philip A. 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Holzer, Georgetown University Roozbeh Hosseini, University of Georgia Yasheng Huang, MIT Sloan School of Management Timothy Hubbard, Colby College Paul Hughes-Cromwick, PHC Health Policy, LLC Isaiah Hull, Senior Economist Dan Hungerman, Notre Dame Michael Mercier Hutchison, University of California, Santa Cruz Matthew Hyle, Winona State University Johannes Hörner, Yale Barry W. Ickes, Pennsylvania State University Scott A Imberman, Michigan State University Joshua Jacobs, University of Washington Sarah Jacobson, Williams College Sanford M. Jacoby, University of California, Los Angeles Eric Jacquier, Boston University Paul Andrew Jargowsky, Rutgers University - Camden Elizabeth Jensen, Hamilton College Michal Jerzmanowski, Clemson University Charles Jeszeck, U.S. Government Accountability Office (ret.) Saleha Jilani, Haverford College Timothy C. Johnson, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign Derek C. Jones, Hamilton College Martha W. M. Jones, Vanderbilt University Paul L. 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